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Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 11:35

Shenyang Urban

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Qingdao Youth Island

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-15.3%0-22.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.3%1-110.2%1-25.6%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.8%3-16.4%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-14.9%4+-22.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.2% 49.0% 2.04 +10.6%

Draw 22.2% 29.0% 3.45 -14.1%

Away win 23.6% 30.8% 3.25 -14.0%

Over 2.5 63.7% 62.5% 1.60 +1.9%

Over 3.5 40.1% 40.8% 2.45 -1.8%

BTTS 62.5% 67.6% 1.48 -7.5%

Home O1.5 55.7% 55.6% 1.80 +0.3%

Away O1.5 36.4% 42.6% 2.35 -14.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.5%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shenyang Urban1.9

Qingdao Youth Island1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SHENYANG URBAN · PPG 1.67

QINGDAO YOUTH ISLAND · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.84 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Shenyang Urban (H) 54.2%

ODDS 2.04 · IMPLIED 49.0% EV +10.6%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -14.1%

Qingdao Youth Island (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -14.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shenyang Urban face Qingdao Youth Island in China - Super League on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shenyang Urban a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Qingdao Youth Island 24%, so Shenyang Urban are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Shenyang Urban and 1.1 for Qingdao Youth Island (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shenyang Urban are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Qingdao Youth Island. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +9.2%.

Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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