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Yunnan Yukun vs Shanghai Port Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 19 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 12:00

Yunnan Yukun

PPG 1.63 · HOME

UPCOMING

Shanghai Port

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-14.4%0-23.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.3%1-19.0%1-26.5%1-33.1%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.5%2-19.3%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.4%3-16.3%3-24.5%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-15.2%4+-23.7%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 40.7% 2.46 +23.3%

Draw 22.3% 25.6% 3.90 -7.8%

Away win 27.6% 42.6% 2.35 -21.1%

Over 2.5 67.0% 74.1% 1.35 -9.6%

Over 3.5 44.5% 52.6% 1.90 -15.4%

BTTS 63.8% 76.9% 1.30 -17.1%

Home O1.5 61.4% 57.8% 1.73 +6.2%

Away O1.5 39.0% 58.8% 1.70 -33.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.8%

H 50% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–2 6.6%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 1–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yunnan Yukun2.0

Shanghai Port1.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

YUNNAN YUKUN · PPG 1.63

SHANGHAI PORT · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.63) > Away POOR (0.89)

Win probability 1X2

Yunnan Yukun (H) 50.1%

ODDS 2.46 · IMPLIED 40.7% EV +23.3%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -7.8%

Shanghai Port (A) 27.6%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -21.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yunnan Yukun face Shanghai Port in China - Super League on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yunnan Yukun a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Shanghai Port 28%, so Yunnan Yukun are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Yunnan Yukun and 1.4 for Shanghai Port (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yunnan Yukun are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 0.89 for Shanghai Port. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +23.3%.

Yunnan Yukun vs Shanghai Port Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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