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Qingdao West C. vs Chengdu Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 19 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 11:00

Qingdao West C.

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Chengdu

PPG 2.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-110.9%0-28.5%0-34.4%0-4+2.4%1 1-07.8%1-112.0%1-29.3%1-34.8%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.3%2-16.6%2-25.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.6%3-12.4%3-21.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.9% 25.3% 3.95 +26.0%

Draw 25.2% 26.7% 3.75 -3.3%

Away win 42.8% 57.1% 1.75 -25.1%

Over 2.5 54.1% 61.7% 1.62 -12.4%

Over 3.5 33.2% 40.0% 2.50 -17.0%

BTTS 55.5% 64.5% 1.55 -14.0%

Home O1.5 35.6% 36.4% 2.75 -2.1%

Away O1.5 50.2% 59.9% 1.67 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.5%

A 43% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.0%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–1 10.9%

#4 0–0 7.0%

#5 0–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qingdao West C.1.1

Chengdu1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

QINGDAO WEST C. · PPG 1.67

CHENGDU · PPG 2.22

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.22) vs Home GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Qingdao West C. (H) 31.9%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +26.0%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -3.3%

Chengdu (A) 42.8%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -25.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qingdao West C. face Chengdu in China - Super League on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qingdao West C. a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Chengdu 43%, so Chengdu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Qingdao West C. and 1.5 for Chengdu (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qingdao West C. are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.22 for Chengdu. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +26.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Qingdao West C. vs Chengdu Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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