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Henan SL vs Qingdao Hainiu Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 19 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 11:35

Henan SL

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Qingdao Hainiu

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-17.6%0-24.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.4%1-111.9%1-26.8%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.3%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.2%3-14.9%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 76.9% 1.30 -40.1%

Draw 25.1% 20.4% 4.90 +13.8%

Away win 28.8% 11.5% 8.70 +90.3%

Over 2.5 55.1% 66.7% 1.50 -17.3%

Over 3.5 34.7% 45.5% 2.20 -23.7%

BTTS 55.5% 57.8% 1.73 -4.0%

Home O1.5 47.5% 74.1% 1.35 -35.9%

Away O1.5 36.2% 23.1% 4.33 +56.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.5%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.4%

#4 0–0 6.6%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Henan SL1.6

Qingdao Hainiu1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.1% · O3.5 PROB 34.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HENAN SL · PPG 1.25

QINGDAO HAINIU · PPG 0.44

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.25) vs P(Home)=46.1%

Win probability 1X2

Henan SL (H) 46.1%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -40.1%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +13.8%

Qingdao Hainiu (A) 28.8%

ODDS 8.70 · IMPLIED 11.5% EV +90.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Henan SL face Qingdao Hainiu in China - Super League on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Henan SL a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Qingdao Hainiu 29%, so Henan SL are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Henan SL and 1.1 for Qingdao Hainiu (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Henan SL are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.44 for Qingdao Hainiu. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +90.3%.

Henan SL vs Qingdao Hainiu Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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