Today / China - Super League / Henan SL vs Qingdao Hainiu

Henan SL vs Qingdao Hainiu Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 19 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 11:35

Henan SL

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLDD

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Qingdao Hainiu

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-17.6%0-24.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.4%1-111.9%1-26.8%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.3%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.2%3-14.9%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 76.9% 1.30 -40.1%

Draw 25.1% 20.4% 4.90 +13.8%

Away win 28.8% 11.5% 8.70 +90.3%

Over 2.5 55.1% 66.7% 1.50 -17.3%

Over 3.5 34.7% 45.5% 2.20 -23.7%

BTTS 55.5% 57.8% 1.73 -4.0%

Home O1.5 47.5% 74.1% 1.35 -35.9%

Away O1.5 36.2% 23.1% 4.33 +56.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.5%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.4%

#4 0–0 6.6%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Henan SL1.6

Qingdao Hainiu1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.1% · O3.5 PROB 34.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HENAN SL · PPG 1.25

QINGDAO HAINIU · PPG 0.44

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.25) vs P(Home)=46.1%

Win probability 1X2

Henan SL (H) 46.1%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -40.1%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +13.8%

Qingdao Hainiu (A) 28.8%

ODDS 8.70 · IMPLIED 11.5% EV +90.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Henan SL face Qingdao Hainiu in China - Super League on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Henan SL a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Qingdao Hainiu 29%, so Henan SL are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Henan SL and 1.1 for Qingdao Hainiu (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Henan SL are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.44 for Qingdao Hainiu. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +90.3%. This match finished 5-1.

Henan SL vs Qingdao Hainiu Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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