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Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 09:30

Qingdao Jonoon

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tianjin Teda

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-17.1%0-24.4%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.3%1-111.5%1-27.1%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.3%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.1%3-15.0%3-23.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.9%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 38.5% 2.60 +21.2%

Draw 25.3% 30.8% 3.25 -10.7%

Away win 28.1% 40.0% 2.50 -17.8%

Over 2.5 53.9% 50.0% 2.00 +7.8%

Over 3.5 33.4% 27.8% 3.60 +20.2%

BTTS 55.4% 57.8% 1.73 -4.2%

Home O1.5 53.5% 39.2% 2.55 +36.4%

Away O1.5 36.9% 40.8% 2.45 -9.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 9.3%

#4 2–0 7.5%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qingdao Jonoon1.6

Tianjin Teda1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 33.4%

Form & verdict PPG

QINGDAO JONOON · PPG 1.89

TIANJIN TEDA · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Qingdao Jonoon (H) 46.6%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +21.2%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.7%

Tianjin Teda (A) 28.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qingdao Jonoon face Tianjin Teda in China - Super League on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Tianjin Teda 28%, so Qingdao Jonoon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.2 for Tianjin Teda (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.33 for Tianjin Teda. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +39.4%.

Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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