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S. Shenhua vs Tianjin JT Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 11:35

S. Shenhua

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tianjin JT

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-14.9%0-22.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.2%1-19.8%1-25.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.6%3-16.6%3-23.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-15.2%4+-23.1%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.2% 69.9% 1.43 -22.5%

Draw 22.1% 22.5% 4.45 -1.0%

Away win 23.7% 16.1% 6.20 +28.2%

Over 2.5 63.9% 66.7% 1.50 -4.2%

Over 3.5 40.1% 45.5% 2.20 -11.8%

BTTS 62.4% 62.5% 1.60 -0.2%

Home O1.5 56.8% 70.4% 1.42 -19.3%

Away O1.5 36.4% 29.9% 3.35 +21.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -12.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.4%

H 54% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–0 8.2%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Shenhua2.0

Tianjin JT1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

S. SHENHUA · PPG 1.89

TIANJIN JT · PPG 1.13

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.89) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

S. Shenhua (H) 54.2%

ODDS 1.43 · IMPLIED 69.9% EV -22.5%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV -1.0%

Tianjin JT (A) 23.7%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +28.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Shenhua face Tianjin JT in China - Super League on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Shenhua a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Tianjin JT 24%, so S. Shenhua are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for S. Shenhua and 1.2 for Tianjin JT (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Shenhua are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.13 for Tianjin JT. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +28.2%.

S. Shenhua vs Tianjin JT Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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