Today / China - Super League / S. Shenhua vs Tianjin JT

S. Shenhua vs Tianjin JT Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 11:35

S. Shenhua

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Tianjin JT

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-14.9%0-22.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.2%1-19.8%1-25.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.6%3-16.6%3-23.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-15.2%4+-23.1%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.2% 69.9% 1.43 -22.5%

Draw 22.1% 22.5% 4.45 -1.0%

Away win 23.7% 16.1% 6.20 +28.2%

Over 2.5 63.9% 66.7% 1.50 -4.2%

Over 3.5 40.1% 45.5% 2.20 -11.8%

BTTS 62.4% 62.5% 1.60 -0.2%

Home O1.5 56.8% 70.4% 1.42 -19.3%

Away O1.5 36.4% 29.9% 3.35 +21.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.4%

H 54% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–0 8.2%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Shenhua2.0

Tianjin JT1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

S. SHENHUA · PPG 1.89

TIANJIN JT · PPG 1.13

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.89) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

S. Shenhua (H) 54.2%

ODDS 1.43 · IMPLIED 69.9% EV -22.5%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV -1.0%

Tianjin JT (A) 23.7%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +28.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Shenhua face Tianjin JT in China - Super League on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Shenhua a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Tianjin JT 24%, so S. Shenhua are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for S. Shenhua and 1.2 for Tianjin JT (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Shenhua are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.13 for Tianjin JT. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +28.2%. This match finished 0-2.

S. Shenhua vs Tianjin JT Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - Super League Predictions