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Dongguan United vs Wuxi Wugou Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 11:30

Dongguan United

PPG 0.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Wuxi Wugou

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-16.4%0-28.2%0-37.0%0-4+8.2%1 1-02.8%1-17.3%1-29.3%1-37.9%1-4+9.3%2 2-01.6%2-14.1%2-25.2%2-34.4%2-4+5.2%3 3-00.6%3-11.5%3-22.0%3-31.7%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.2% — — —

Draw 19.2% — — —

Away win 66.6% — — —

Over 2.5 67.0% — — —

Over 3.5 44.5% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 35.0% — — —

Away O1.5 67.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -33.6%

Bet Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 72%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob62.5%

A 67% / xG 1.1-2.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.3%

#2 1–1 7.3%

#3 0–2 8.2%

#4 1–3 7.9%

#5 0–3 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dongguan United1.1

Wuxi Wugou2.6

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DONGGUAN UNITED · PPG 0.25

WUXI WUGOU · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.43 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Dongguan United (H) 14.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Wuxi Wugou (A) 66.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Dongguan United face Wuxi Wugou in China - League One on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dongguan United a 14% chance, the draw 19% and Wuxi Wugou 67%, so Wuxi Wugou are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Dongguan United and 2.6 for Wuxi Wugou (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dongguan United are averaging 0.25 points per game versus 1.38 for Wuxi Wugou.

Dongguan United vs Wuxi Wugou Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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