Today / China - League One / Nanjing City vs Guangdong GZP

Nanjing City vs Guangdong GZP Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 11:30

Nanjing City

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Guangdong GZP

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-112.3%0-28.6%0-34.0%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.2%1-112.7%1-28.8%1-34.1%1-4+1.9%2 2-04.7%2-16.6%2-24.6%2-32.1%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.6%3-12.3%3-21.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.5% 26.7% 3.75 +14.4%

Draw 27.0% 30.8% 3.25 -7.3%

Away win 42.5% 52.6% 1.90 -19.3%

Over 2.5 50.2% 51.3% 1.95 -2.1%

Over 3.5 29.0% 29.4% 3.40 -0.8%

BTTS 52.6% 56.5% 1.77 -6.9%

Home O1.5 35.6% 32.3% 3.10 +10.4%

Away O1.5 39.0% 51.3% 1.95 -23.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -46.9%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 19%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.6%

A 42% / xG 1.0-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.9%

#3 0–1 12.3%

#4 1–2 8.8%

#5 0–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nanjing City1.0

Guangdong GZP1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NANJING CITY · PPG 1.86

GUANGDONG GZP · PPG 1.83

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.86), Away GOOD (1.83)

Win probability 1X2

Nanjing City (H) 30.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +14.4%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.3%

Guangdong GZP (A) 42.5%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -19.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nanjing City face Guangdong GZP in China - League One on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nanjing City a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Guangdong GZP 43%, so Guangdong GZP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Nanjing City and 1.4 for Guangdong GZP (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nanjing City are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.83 for Guangdong GZP. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.4%.

Nanjing City vs Guangdong GZP Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - League One Predictions