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Guangxi H. vs Shaanxi Union Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 11:30

Guangxi H.

PPG 2.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Shaanxi Union

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.1%0-113.4%0-26.9%0-32.4%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.2%1-113.5%1-27.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.6%2-16.8%2-23.5%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.2%3-12.3%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 47.6% 2.10 -23.1%

Draw 28.8% 33.3% 3.00 -8.2%

Away win 34.6% 29.0% 3.45 +19.4%

Over 2.5 46.9% 48.8% 2.05 -3.9%

Over 3.5 28.2% 28.6% 3.50 -0.8%

BTTS 48.8% 57.1% 1.75 -14.6%

Home O1.5 35.6% 42.0% 2.38 -15.3%

Away O1.5 33.5% 30.8% 3.25 +8.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -46.9%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.8%

D 29% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 13.1%

#3 0–1 13.4%

#4 1–0 13.2%

#5 1–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guangxi H.1.0

Shaanxi Union1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GUANGXI H. · PPG 2.33

SHAANXI UNION · PPG 1.14

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=36.6%

Win probability 1X2

Guangxi H. (H) 36.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -23.1%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.2%

Shaanxi Union (A) 34.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guangxi H. face Shaanxi Union in China - League One on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guangxi H. a 37% chance, the draw 29% and Shaanxi Union 35%, so Guangxi H. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Guangxi H. and 1.0 for Shaanxi Union (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guangxi H. are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.14 for Shaanxi Union. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.4%.

Guangxi H. vs Shaanxi Union Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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