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Changchun Yatai vs Nanjing City Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 11:00

Changchun Yatai

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nanjing City

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.04 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-19.6%0-26.1%0-32.6%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.0%1-112.6%1-28.0%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.5%2-18.3%2-25.2%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.9%3-13.6%3-22.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% — — —

Draw 26.1% — — —

Away win 34.3% — — —

Over 2.5 53.9% — — —

Over 3.5 32.8% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 38.5% — — —

Away O1.5 37.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -33.6%

Bet Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.4%

H 40% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.6%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Changchun Yatai1.3

Nanjing City1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CHANGCHUN YATAI · PPG 1.29

NANJING CITY · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.04 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Changchun Yatai (H) 39.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Nanjing City (A) 34.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Changchun Yatai face Nanjing City in China - League One on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Changchun Yatai a 40% chance, the draw 26% and Nanjing City 34%, so Changchun Yatai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Changchun Yatai and 1.3 for Nanjing City (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.71 for Nanjing City.

Changchun Yatai vs Nanjing City Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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