Today / China - League One / Suzhou Dongwu vs Shenzhen J.

Suzhou Dongwu vs Shenzhen J. Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 15 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 11:00

Suzhou Dongwu

PPG 0.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Shenzhen J.

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+20.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-17.3%0-28.9%0-37.2%0-4+7.9%1 1-03.2%1-17.8%1-29.5%1-37.7%1-4+8.4%2 2-01.7%2-14.2%2-25.1%2-34.1%2-4+4.5%3 3-00.6%3-11.5%3-21.8%3-31.5%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.8% 27.0% 3.70 -11.6%

Draw 21.0% 29.4% 3.40 -17.2%

Away win 57.2% 54.1% 1.85 +5.8%

Over 2.5 67.1% 55.6% 1.80 +20.8%

Over 3.5 44.5% 33.3% 3.00 +33.5%

BTTS 62.4% 59.9% 1.67 +4.2%

Home O1.5 35.6% 34.5% 2.90 +3.2%

Away O1.5 67.9% 54.1% 1.85 +25.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -43.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob62.4%

A 57% / xG 1.1-2.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.5%

#2 1–1 7.8%

#3 0–2 8.9%

#4 1–3 7.7%

#5 0–3 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Suzhou Dongwu1.1

Shenzhen J.2.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SUZHOU DONGWU · PPG 0.57

SHENZHEN J. · PPG 1.86

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.86) vs Home POOR (0.57)

Win probability 1X2

Suzhou Dongwu (H) 21.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -11.6%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -17.2%

Shenzhen J. (A) 57.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +5.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Suzhou Dongwu face Shenzhen J. in China - League One on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Suzhou Dongwu a 22% chance, the draw 21% and Shenzhen J. 57%, so Shenzhen J. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Suzhou Dongwu and 2.4 for Shenzhen J. (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Suzhou Dongwu are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 1.86 for Shenzhen J.. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +53.9%.

Suzhou Dongwu vs Shenzhen J. Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - League One Predictions