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Meizhou Hakka vs Dalian Kuncheng Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 11:30

Meizhou Hakka

PPG 0.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dalian Kuncheng

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+15.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-17.7%0-27.8%0-35.2%0-4+4.2%1 1-04.8%1-19.7%1-29.7%1-36.5%1-4+5.2%2 2-03.0%2-16.0%2-26.0%2-34.0%2-4+3.2%3 3-01.2%3-12.5%3-22.5%3-31.7%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.4% 37.0% 2.70 -18.9%

Draw 20.8% 31.3% 3.20 -20.1%

Away win 53.8% 41.7% 2.40 +29.1%

Over 2.5 63.9% 55.6% 1.80 +15.0%

Over 3.5 42.0% 33.3% 3.00 +26.0%

BTTS 62.4% 59.9% 1.67 +4.2%

Home O1.5 39.4% 38.2% 2.62 +3.2%

Away O1.5 50.2% 50.0% 2.00 +0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -46.9%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob62.4%

A 54% / xG 1.2-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 7.8%

#4 1–3 6.5%

#5 0–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Meizhou Hakka1.2

Dalian Kuncheng2.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MEIZHOU HAKKA · PPG 0.57

DALIAN KUNCHENG · PPG 1.00

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.57) vs Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Meizhou Hakka (H) 25.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -18.9%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -20.1%

Dalian Kuncheng (A) 53.8%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +29.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Meizhou Hakka face Dalian Kuncheng in China - League One on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Meizhou Hakka a 25% chance, the draw 21% and Dalian Kuncheng 54%, so Dalian Kuncheng are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Meizhou Hakka and 2.0 for Dalian Kuncheng (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Meizhou Hakka are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 1.00 for Dalian Kuncheng. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +48.5%.

Meizhou Hakka vs Dalian Kuncheng Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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