Today / Australia - NPL New South Wales / St George City FA vs Sydney United

St George City FA vs Sydney United Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 25 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 09:15

St George City FA

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sydney United

PPG 1.92 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-116.4%0-212.0%0-35.8%0-4+3.0%1 1-08.1%1-111.9%1-28.7%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-03.0%2-14.3%2-23.2%2-31.5%2-4+0.8%3 3-00.7%3-11.0%3-20.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.3% 21.7% 4.60 +4.3%

Draw 29.2% 27.0% 3.70 +4.8%

Away win 47.6% 61.0% 1.64 -21.9%

Over 2.5 43.6% 51.8% 1.93 -15.8%

Over 3.5 23.0% 29.9% 3.35 -13.8%

BTTS 48.5% 54.1% 1.85 -10.3%

Home O1.5 33.3% 26.7% 3.75 +24.9%

Away O1.5 48.4% 55.6% 1.80 -12.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob48.5%

A 48% / xG 0.7-1.5 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 16.4%

#2 1–1 11.9%

#3 0–0 11.2%

#4 0–2 12.0%

#5 1–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St George City FA0.7

Sydney United1.5

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ST GEORGE CITY FA · PPG 1.38

SYDNEY UNITED · PPG 1.92

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.74 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

St George City FA (H) 23.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +4.3%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +4.8%

Sydney United (A) 47.6%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

St George City FA face Sydney United in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St George City FA a 23% chance, the draw 29% and Sydney United 48%, so Sydney United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for St George City FA and 1.5 for Sydney United (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St George City FA are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.92 for Sydney United. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +24.9%.

St George City FA vs Sydney United Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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