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NWS Spirit vs Western Sydney Wanderers U23 Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 25 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 07:30

NWS Spirit

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Western Sydney Wanderers U23

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-17.0%0-25.8%0-33.2%0-4+1.9%1 1-06.3%1-110.5%1-28.7%1-34.8%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.8%2-17.9%2-26.6%2-33.7%2-4+2.2%3 3-02.4%3-14.0%3-23.3%3-31.8%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.1%4+-21.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% 54.1% 1.85 -31.0%

Draw 24.2% 27.0% 3.70 -6.3%

Away win 38.5% 29.4% 3.40 +30.9%

Over 2.5 63.7% 64.5% 1.55 -1.3%

Over 3.5 40.4% 42.0% 2.38 -3.9%

BTTS 62.8% 67.6% 1.48 -7.1%

Home O1.5 46.3% 59.9% 1.67 -22.7%

Away O1.5 49.0% 42.0% 2.38 +16.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob62.8%

A 38% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NWS Spirit1.5

Western Sydney Wanderers U231.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NWS SPIRIT · PPG 1.75

WESTERN SYDNEY WANDERERS U23 · PPG 1.64

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.15 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

NWS Spirit (H) 37.3%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -31.0%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.3%

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 (A) 38.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +30.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

NWS Spirit face Western Sydney Wanderers U23 in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NWS Spirit a 37% chance, the draw 24% and Western Sydney Wanderers U23 39%, so Western Sydney Wanderers U23 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for NWS Spirit and 1.7 for Western Sydney Wanderers U23 (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NWS Spirit are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.64 for Western Sydney Wanderers U23. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +28.4%.

NWS Spirit vs Western Sydney Wanderers U23 Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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