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St. George Saints vs Sydney FC U23 Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 25 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 08:30

St. George Saints

PPG 0.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sydney FC U23

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-19.9%0-28.3%0-34.7%0-4+2.9%1 1-06.7%1-111.4%1-29.6%1-35.4%1-4+3.3%2 2-03.9%2-16.5%2-25.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.5%3-12.5%3-22.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.1% 38.5% 2.60 -14.6%

Draw 24.9% 28.6% 3.50 -7.7%

Away win 46.0% 42.9% 2.33 +7.2%

Over 2.5 60.7% 60.6% 1.65 +0.1%

Over 3.5 37.5% 38.5% 2.60 -2.5%

BTTS 60.0% 66.7% 1.50 -10.0%

Home O1.5 35.0% 47.6% 2.10 -26.5%

Away O1.5 49.0% 50.0% 2.00 -2.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob60.0%

A 46% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 8.3%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. George Saints1.2

Sydney FC U231.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. GEORGE SAINTS · PPG 0.82

SYDNEY FC U23 · PPG 1.27

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.54 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

St. George Saints (H) 29.1%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -14.6%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.7%

Sydney FC U23 (A) 46.0%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +7.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. George Saints face Sydney FC U23 in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. George Saints a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Sydney FC U23 46%, so Sydney FC U23 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for St. George Saints and 1.7 for Sydney FC U23 (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. George Saints are averaging 0.82 points per game versus 1.27 for Sydney FC U23. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.1%.

St. George Saints vs Sydney FC U23 Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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