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APIA Leichhardt Tigers vs UNSW Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 25 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 08:00

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

PPG 2.58 · HOME

UPCOMING

UNSW

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-13.2%0-21.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.3%1-17.8%1-24.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.9%2-19.5%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.2%3-17.7%3-24.1%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-07.9%4+-18.4%4+-24.5%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% 69.4% 1.44 -17.9%

Draw 22.5% 22.7% 4.40 -0.6%

Away win 20.4% 17.2% 5.80 +11.0%

Over 2.5 63.7% 67.6% 1.48 -5.7%

Over 3.5 40.8% 45.5% 2.20 -10.2%

BTTS 55.7% 63.7% 1.57 -12.6%

Home O1.5 61.8% 71.4% 1.40 -13.5%

Away O1.5 36.4% 31.3% 3.20 +16.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.7%

H 57% / xG 2.4-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.5%

#2 1–1 7.8%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 3–1 7.7%

#5 3–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

APIA Leichhardt Tigers2.4

UNSW1.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.8%

Form & verdict PPG

APIA LEICHHARDT TIGERS · PPG 2.58

UNSW · PPG 0.55

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.37 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

APIA Leichhardt Tigers (H) 57.0%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -17.9%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -0.6%

UNSW (A) 20.4%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

APIA Leichhardt Tigers face UNSW in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives APIA Leichhardt Tigers a 57% chance, the draw 23% and UNSW 20%, so APIA Leichhardt Tigers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for APIA Leichhardt Tigers and 1.1 for UNSW (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, APIA Leichhardt Tigers are averaging 2.58 points per game versus 0.55 for UNSW. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +18.5%.

APIA Leichhardt Tigers vs UNSW Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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