Today / Australia - NPL New South Wales / Sutherland S. vs Sydney Olympic

Sutherland S. vs Sydney Olympic Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 24 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 07:30

Sutherland S.

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sydney Olympic

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-13.6%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.0%1-18.3%1-24.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.3%2-19.7%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.2%3-17.5%3-23.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-17.6%4+-24.0%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.5% 47.6% 2.10 +20.8%

Draw 22.3% 29.0% 3.45 -13.8%

Away win 20.2% 33.9% 2.95 -24.3%

Over 2.5 63.9% 60.6% 1.65 +5.4%

Over 3.5 42.3% 38.5% 2.60 +10.0%

BTTS 62.4% 66.7% 1.50 -6.4%

Home O1.5 62.9% 54.1% 1.85 +16.4%

Away O1.5 36.2% 43.5% 2.30 -16.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 104 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -14.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob62.4%

H 57% / xG 2.3-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.7%

#2 1–1 8.3%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 3–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sutherland S.2.3

Sydney Olympic1.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SUTHERLAND S. · PPG 1.50

SYDNEY OLYMPIC · PPG 0.83

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Sutherland S. (H) 57.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +20.8%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -13.8%

Sydney Olympic (A) 20.2%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -24.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sutherland S. face Sydney Olympic in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sutherland S. a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Sydney Olympic 20%, so Sutherland S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Sutherland S. and 1.0 for Sydney Olympic (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sutherland S. are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.83 for Sydney Olympic. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +56.5%.

Sutherland S. vs Sydney Olympic Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL New South Wales Predictions