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SD Raiders vs Marconi Stallions Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 25 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 07:00

SD Raiders

PPG 1.15 · HOME

UPCOMING

Marconi Stallions

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 58.0% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-112.1%0-211.4%0-37.1%0-4+5.2%1 1-05.5%1-110.4%1-29.8%1-36.2%1-4+4.5%2 2-02.4%2-14.5%2-24.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.9%3 3-00.7%3-11.3%3-21.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.4% 21.1% 4.75 -4.7%

Draw 22.6% 26.3% 3.80 -8.5%

Away win 58.0% 62.5% 1.60 -7.2%

Over 2.5 56.6% 59.9% 1.67 -5.5%

Over 3.5 35.0% 37.0% 2.70 -5.5%

BTTS 53.4% 59.9% 1.67 -10.8%

Home O1.5 33.3% 31.3% 3.20 +6.6%

Away O1.5 49.0% 62.5% 1.60 -21.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob53.4%

A 58% / xG 0.9-1.9 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 0–2 11.4%

#3 0–1 12.1%

#4 1–2 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SD Raiders0.9

Marconi Stallions1.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.6% · O3.5 PROB 35.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SD RAIDERS · PPG 1.15

MARCONI STALLIONS · PPG 2.17

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.02 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

SD Raiders (H) 19.4%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -4.7%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.5%

Marconi Stallions (A) 58.0%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -7.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

SD Raiders face Marconi Stallions in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SD Raiders a 19% chance, the draw 23% and Marconi Stallions 58%, so Marconi Stallions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for SD Raiders and 1.9 for Marconi Stallions (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SD Raiders are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 2.17 for Marconi Stallions. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +6.6%.

SD Raiders vs Marconi Stallions Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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