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UNSW vs NWS Spirit Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 24 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 07:15

UNSW

PPG 1.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

NWS Spirit

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-19.7%0-25.2%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.2%1-112.9%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.1%2-18.6%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.6%3-13.8%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 38.5% 2.60 +15.2%

Draw 26.8% 29.9% 3.35 -6.1%

Away win 28.9% 41.7% 2.40 -18.4%

Over 2.5 50.2% 56.5% 1.77 -11.2%

Over 3.5 29.0% 33.9% 2.95 -8.7%

BTTS 52.7% 62.5% 1.60 -15.7%

Home O1.5 41.1% 44.4% 2.25 -7.5%

Away O1.5 36.2% 46.5% 2.15 -22.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 104 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -14.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.7%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 9.2%

#3 1–0 12.2%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UNSW1.3

NWS Spirit1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

UNSW · PPG 1.83

NWS SPIRIT · PPG 0.91

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.83) vs P(Home)=44.3%

Win probability 1X2

UNSW (H) 44.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +15.2%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -6.1%

NWS Spirit (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

UNSW face NWS Spirit in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UNSW a 44% chance, the draw 27% and NWS Spirit 29%, so UNSW are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for UNSW and 1.1 for NWS Spirit (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UNSW are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.91 for NWS Spirit. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.2%.

UNSW vs NWS Spirit Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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