Today / Australia - NPL New South Wales / Blacktown City vs St George City

Blacktown City vs St George City Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 24 ·Sunday, July 19, 2026, 05:00

Blacktown City

PPG 0.73 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

St George City

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-17.1%0-24.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.8%1-111.6%1-26.9%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.9%2-19.4%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.3%3-15.1%3-23.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.0%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% 47.6% 2.10 +2.7%

Draw 24.6% 29.9% 3.35 -10.5%

Away win 26.4% 32.3% 3.10 -10.9%

Over 2.5 55.7% 54.1% 1.85 +3.0%

Over 3.5 34.9% 31.3% 3.20 +11.7%

BTTS 55.5% 59.9% 1.67 -7.3%

Home O1.5 53.0% 48.8% 2.05 +8.6%

Away O1.5 36.5% 37.7% 2.65 -3.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.5%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 9.8%

#4 2–0 7.9%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Blacktown City1.6

St George City1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.7% · O3.5 PROB 34.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BLACKTOWN CITY · PPG 0.73

ST GEORGE CITY · PPG 0.70

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.73), Away POOR (0.70)

Win probability 1X2

Blacktown City (H) 48.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +2.7%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.5%

St George City (A) 26.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Blacktown City face St George City in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Sunday, July 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Blacktown City a 49% chance, the draw 25% and St George City 26%, so Blacktown City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Blacktown City and 1.2 for St George City (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Blacktown City are averaging 0.73 points per game versus 0.70 for St George City. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.7%. This match finished 3-0.

Blacktown City vs St George City Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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