Today / Australia - NPL New South Wales / Manly United vs Sydney Olympic

Manly United vs Sydney Olympic Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Matchday 25 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 09:30

Manly United

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWD

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Sydney Olympic

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLD

// Model verdict

Home 54% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-16.4%0-22.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.9%1-111.1%1-24.8%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.2%2-19.7%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.5%3-15.6%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-13.6%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% 54.1% 1.85 +1.0%

Draw 25.1% 27.8% 3.60 -5.8%

Away win 20.3% 28.6% 3.50 -17.4%

Over 2.5 51.0% 58.8% 1.70 -13.3%

Over 3.5 29.6% 36.4% 2.75 -11.2%

BTTS 52.3% 62.5% 1.60 -16.3%

Home O1.5 53.5% 55.6% 1.80 -3.7%

Away O1.5 22.5% 37.7% 2.65 -24.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 163 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -11.5%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.3%

H 55% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 2–0 11.2%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manly United1.7

Sydney Olympic0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.0% · O3.5 PROB 29.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MANLY UNITED · PPG 1.83

SYDNEY OLYMPIC · PPG 0.85

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

54%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Manly United (H) 54.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +1.0%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -5.8%

Sydney Olympic (A) 20.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -17.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manly United face Sydney Olympic in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manly United a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Sydney Olympic 20%, so Manly United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Manly United and 0.9 for Sydney Olympic (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manly United are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.85 for Sydney Olympic. This match finished 4-0.

Manly United vs Sydney Olympic Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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