Today / Australia - NPL New South Wales / Manly United vs Sydney Olympic

Manly United vs Sydney Olympic Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 25 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 09:30

Manly United

PPG 1.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sydney Olympic

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+11.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-16.3%0-22.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.7%1-111.1%1-24.8%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.1%2-19.7%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.5%3-15.7%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-13.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% 48.8% 2.05 +11.9%

Draw 25.1% 29.0% 3.45 -8.0%

Away win 20.3% 32.3% 3.10 -22.2%

Over 2.5 52.1% 58.8% 1.70 -11.4%

Over 3.5 30.3% 37.0% 2.70 -18.2%

BTTS 52.3% 64.5% 1.55 -18.9%

Home O1.5 53.5% 54.1% 1.85 -1.0%

Away O1.5 23.6% 40.8% 2.45 -25.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.3%

H 55% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–0 11.1%

#3 1–0 12.7%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manly United1.8

Sydney Olympic0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.1% · O3.5 PROB 30.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MANLY UNITED · PPG 1.83

SYDNEY OLYMPIC · PPG 0.85

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.88 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Manly United (H) 54.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +11.9%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -8.0%

Sydney Olympic (A) 20.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -22.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manly United face Sydney Olympic in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manly United a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Sydney Olympic 20%, so Manly United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Manly United and 0.9 for Sydney Olympic (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manly United are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.85 for Sydney Olympic. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.7%.

Manly United vs Sydney Olympic Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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