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Marconi S. vs Sydney Utd Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 24 ·Sunday, July 19, 2026, 05:00

Marconi S.

PPG 2.64 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Sydney Utd

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+10.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-18.7%0-23.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.0%1-112.1%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.9%2-18.4%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.5%3-13.9%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 48.8% 2.05 +10.1%

Draw 26.6% 31.3% 3.20 -8.9%

Away win 19.7% 29.9% 3.35 -20.4%

Over 2.5 44.0% 51.3% 1.95 -14.2%

Over 3.5 23.2% 29.4% 3.40 -12.7%

BTTS 48.5% 57.8% 1.73 -16.1%

Home O1.5 43.9% 47.6% 2.10 -7.8%

Away O1.5 21.6% 33.9% 2.95 -21.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 54% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.0%

#2 0–0 12.2%

#3 1–1 12.1%

#4 2–0 11.9%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marconi S.1.4

Sydney Utd0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MARCONI S. · PPG 2.64

SYDNEY UTD · PPG 1.82

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.64) vs P(Home)=53.7%

Win probability 1X2

Marconi S. (H) 53.7%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +10.1%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.9%

Sydney Utd (A) 19.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -20.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marconi S. face Sydney Utd in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Sunday, July 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marconi S. a 54% chance, the draw 27% and Sydney Utd 20%, so Marconi S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Marconi S. and 0.7 for Sydney Utd (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marconi S. are averaging 2.64 points per game versus 1.82 for Sydney Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Marconi S. vs Sydney Utd Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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