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WS Wanderers B vs APIA Leichhardt Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 24 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 05:00

WS Wanderers B

PPG 0.92 · HOME

UPCOMING

APIA Leichhardt

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-16.5%0-26.0%0-33.7%0-4+2.6%1 1-05.3%1-19.8%1-29.0%1-35.5%1-4+3.8%2 2-04.0%2-17.4%2-26.8%2-34.1%2-4+2.9%3 3-02.0%3-13.7%3-23.4%3-32.1%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.9%4+-21.8%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 23.8% 4.20 +52.0%

Draw 22.1% 25.3% 3.95 -7.6%

Away win 41.7% 61.0% 1.64 -31.6%

Over 2.5 63.9% 69.0% 1.45 -7.3%

Over 3.5 41.1% 46.5% 2.15 -11.6%

BTTS 63.4% 69.0% 1.45 -8.1%

Home O1.5 46.0% 39.2% 2.55 +17.3%

Away O1.5 50.2% 67.6% 1.48 -25.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 104 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -14.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.4%

A 42% / xG 1.5-1.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

WS Wanderers B1.5

APIA Leichhardt1.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 41.1%

Form & verdict PPG

WS WANDERERS B · PPG 0.92

APIA LEICHHARDT · PPG 1.82

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.82) vs Home POOR (0.92)

Win probability 1X2

WS Wanderers B (H) 36.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +52.0%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -7.6%

APIA Leichhardt (A) 41.7%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -31.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

WS Wanderers B face APIA Leichhardt in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives WS Wanderers B a 36% chance, the draw 22% and APIA Leichhardt 42%, so APIA Leichhardt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for WS Wanderers B and 1.8 for APIA Leichhardt (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, WS Wanderers B are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 1.82 for APIA Leichhardt. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +52.0%.

WS Wanderers B vs APIA Leichhardt Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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