Today / Australia - NPL Queensland / Gold Coast Knights vs Gold Coast United

Gold Coast Knights vs Gold Coast United Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 08:15

Gold Coast Knights

PPG 2.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gold Coast United

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-11.9%0-21.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.7%1-15.7%1-23.4%1-31.4%1-4+0.5%2 2-06.9%2-18.3%2-25.0%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.7%3-18.1%3-24.9%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-010.1%4+-112.2%4+-27.3%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.4% 69.0% 1.45 -9.5%

Draw 18.8% 21.1% 4.75 -6.4%

Away win 18.8% 20.0% 5.00 -3.6%

Over 2.5 67.0% 75.2% 1.33 -10.9%

Over 3.5 44.5% 54.1% 1.85 -17.7%

BTTS 62.5% 70.4% 1.42 -11.3%

Home O1.5 77.3% 76.9% 1.30 +0.5%

Away O1.5 36.9% 39.2% 2.55 -5.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.5%

H 62% / xG 2.9-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.3%

#2 3–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 6.9%

#4 3–0 6.7%

#5 1–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gold Coast Knights2.9

Gold Coast United1.2

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GOLD COAST KNIGHTS · PPG 2.22

GOLD COAST UNITED · PPG 0.78

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.72 for Home, form 2.22 vs 0.78 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Gold Coast Knights (H) 62.4%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -9.5%

Draw 18.8%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -6.4%

Gold Coast United (A) 18.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gold Coast Knights face Gold Coast United in Australia - NPL Queensland on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gold Coast Knights a 62% chance, the draw 19% and Gold Coast United 19%, so Gold Coast Knights are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Gold Coast Knights and 1.2 for Gold Coast United (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gold Coast Knights are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 0.78 for Gold Coast United. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +4.2%.

Gold Coast Knights vs Gold Coast United Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL Queensland Predictions