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Q. Lions vs Eastern Suburbs Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 07:00

Q. Lions

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Eastern Suburbs

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.4% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-14.0%0-22.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.7%1-18.9%1-25.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.4%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.2%3-17.2%3-24.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-16.6%4+-23.8%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.6% 67.6% 1.48 -14.8%

Draw 22.5% 21.7% 4.60 +2.1%

Away win 19.9% 20.0% 5.00 -0.3%

Over 2.5 64.4% 80.0% 1.25 -19.5%

Over 3.5 42.5% 58.8% 1.70 -27.8%

BTTS 62.4% 74.1% 1.35 -15.8%

Home O1.5 62.5% 78.1% 1.28 -20.0%

Away O1.5 35.7% 43.5% 2.30 -17.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 4.7%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.4%

H 58% / xG 2.2-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 3–1 7.2%

#5 1–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Q. Lions2.2

Eastern Suburbs1.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.5%

Form & verdict PPG

Q. LIONS · PPG 2.50

EASTERN SUBURBS · PPG 1.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.50) > Away GOOD (1.88)

Win probability 1X2

Q. Lions (H) 57.6%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -14.8%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +2.1%

Eastern Suburbs (A) 19.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Q. Lions face Eastern Suburbs in Australia - NPL Queensland on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Q. Lions a 58% chance, the draw 23% and Eastern Suburbs 20%, so Q. Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Q. Lions and 1.2 for Eastern Suburbs (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Q. Lions are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.88 for Eastern Suburbs. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.1%.

Q. Lions vs Eastern Suburbs Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

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