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Gold C. Utd vs Q. Lions Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 05:00

Gold C. Utd

PPG 0.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Q. Lions

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-16.8%0-28.9%0-37.7%0-4+9.5%1 1-02.7%1-17.0%1-29.2%1-38.0%1-4+9.8%2 2-01.4%2-13.7%2-24.8%2-34.2%2-4+5.1%3 3-00.5%3-11.3%3-21.7%3-31.4%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.2% 13.3% 7.50 +17.4%

Draw 21.2% 17.9% 5.60 +11.2%

Away win 61.6% 78.1% 1.28 -21.1%

Over 2.5 63.9% 80.0% 1.25 -20.1%

Over 3.5 42.3% 58.8% 1.70 -28.1%

BTTS 60.0% 66.7% 1.50 -10.0%

Home O1.5 35.6% 33.3% 3.00 +6.8%

Away O1.5 67.9% 83.3% 1.20 -18.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 0.0%

Bet Hit 76%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob60.0%

A 62% / xG 1.0-2.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.2%

#2 0–2 8.9%

#3 1–1 7.0%

#4 1–3 8.0%

#5 0–3 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gold C. Utd1.0

Q. Lions2.6

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GOLD C. UTD · PPG 0.75

Q. LIONS · PPG 2.00

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Gold C. Utd (H) 17.2%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +17.4%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +11.2%

Q. Lions (A) 61.6%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -21.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gold C. Utd face Q. Lions in Australia - NPL Queensland on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gold C. Utd a 17% chance, the draw 21% and Q. Lions 62%, so Q. Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Gold C. Utd and 2.6 for Q. Lions (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gold C. Utd are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 2.00 for Q. Lions. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +17.4%.

Gold C. Utd vs Q. Lions Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

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