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Gold C. Utd vs Olympic FC Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 05:00

Gold C. Utd

PPG 0.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Olympic FC

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-16.0%0-26.0%0-34.0%0-4+3.2%1 1-04.5%1-19.0%1-29.1%1-36.1%1-4+4.8%2 2-03.4%2-16.8%2-26.8%2-34.5%2-4+3.6%3 3-01.7%3-13.4%3-23.4%3-32.3%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.8%4+-21.8%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.3% 29.9% 3.35 +8.2%

Draw 22.6% 25.0% 4.00 -5.8%

Away win 45.1% 55.6% 1.80 -18.8%

Over 2.5 64.1% 73.5% 1.36 -12.8%

Over 3.5 42.5% 51.8% 1.93 -18.0%

BTTS 63.2% 74.1% 1.35 -14.7%

Home O1.5 45.2% 48.8% 2.05 -7.3%

Away O1.5 50.2% 67.6% 1.48 -25.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 4.7%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.2%

A 45% / xG 1.5-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 2–1 6.8%

#5 1–3 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gold C. Utd1.5

Olympic FC2.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GOLD C. UTD · PPG 0.43

OLYMPIC FC · PPG 0.89

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.43) vs Away POOR (0.89)

Win probability 1X2

Gold C. Utd (H) 32.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +8.2%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -5.8%

Olympic FC (A) 45.1%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gold C. Utd face Olympic FC in Australia - NPL Queensland on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gold C. Utd a 32% chance, the draw 23% and Olympic FC 45%, so Olympic FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Gold C. Utd and 2.0 for Olympic FC (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gold C. Utd are averaging 0.43 points per game versus 0.89 for Olympic FC. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.2%.

Gold C. Utd vs Olympic FC Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

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