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Moreton City E. vs Magic United Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 08:00

Moreton City E.

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLW

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Magic United

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.8% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-10.4%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-01.5%1-11.9%1-21.1%1-30.5%1-4+0.2%2 2-03.4%2-14.2%2-22.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.1%3-16.2%3-23.8%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-019.1%4+-123.3%4+-214.2%4+-35.8%4+-4+2.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.7% 89.3% 1.12 -24.2%

Draw 17.2% 13.9% 7.20 +14.3%

Away win 15.1% 7.1% 14.00 +66.8%

Over 2.5 79.8% 83.3% 1.20 -4.2%

Over 3.5 56.6% 69.0% 1.45 -17.9%

BTTS 63.2% 60.6% 1.65 +4.3%

Home O1.5 77.8% 90.1% 1.11 -13.6%

Away O1.5 38.4% 25.6% 3.90 +49.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)4.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.2%

H 68% / xG 4.4-1.2 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1 6.9%

#2 3–1 6.2%

#3 5–1 6.1%

#4 4–0 5.6%

#5 3–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Moreton City E.4.4

Magic United1.2

COMBINED 5.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.8% · O3.5 PROB 56.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MORETON CITY E. · PPG 2.38

MAGIC UNITED · PPG 0.88

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.38), Away POOR (0.88) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Moreton City E. (H) 67.7%

ODDS 1.12 · IMPLIED 89.3% EV -24.2%

Draw 17.2%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV +14.3%

Magic United (A) 15.1%

ODDS 14.00 · IMPLIED 7.1% EV +66.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Moreton City E. face Magic United in Australia - NPL Queensland on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Moreton City E. a 68% chance, the draw 17% and Magic United 15%, so Moreton City E. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.4 for Moreton City E. and 1.2 for Magic United (5.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Moreton City E. are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.88 for Magic United. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +66.8%. This match finished 4-3.

Moreton City E. vs Magic United Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

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