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Gold C. Knights vs Brisbane City Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 06:30

Gold C. Knights

PPG 2.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Brisbane City

PPG 2.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.8% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.6%0-21.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-02.5%1-14.7%1-24.3%1-32.7%1-4+1.9%2 2-03.6%2-16.7%2-26.3%2-33.9%2-4+2.8%3 3-03.5%3-16.5%3-26.0%3-33.7%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-19.5%4+-28.8%4+-35.5%4+-4+3.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 60.6% 1.65 -13.0%

Draw 20.5% 23.8% 4.20 -8.3%

Away win 26.8% 26.0% 3.85 +1.9%

Over 2.5 75.8% 80.0% 1.25 -5.3%

Over 3.5 52.9% 58.8% 1.70 -10.1%

BTTS 69.4% 76.9% 1.30 -9.8%

Home O1.5 75.9% 74.1% 1.35 +2.5%

Away O1.5 50.2% 50.0% 2.00 +0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 4.7%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob69.4%

H 53% / xG 2.9-1.9 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 6.7%

#2 3–1 6.5%

#3 2–2 6.3%

#4 3–2 6.0%

#5 1–1 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gold C. Knights2.9

Brisbane City1.9

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.8% · O3.5 PROB 52.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GOLD C. KNIGHTS · PPG 2.71

BRISBANE CITY · PPG 2.29

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.71) > Away EXCELLENT (2.29)

Win probability 1X2

Gold C. Knights (H) 52.7%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -13.0%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -8.3%

Brisbane City (A) 26.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gold C. Knights face Brisbane City in Australia - NPL Queensland on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gold C. Knights a 53% chance, the draw 21% and Brisbane City 27%, so Gold C. Knights are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Gold C. Knights and 1.9 for Brisbane City (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gold C. Knights are averaging 2.71 points per game versus 2.29 for Brisbane City. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +6.8%.

Gold C. Knights vs Brisbane City Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

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