Today / Australia - NPL Queensland / Rochedale vs Brisbane City

Rochedale vs Brisbane City Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 07:00

Rochedale

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLW

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Brisbane City

PPG 2.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.3% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-13.2%0-24.0%0-33.4%0-4+3.8%1 1-02.3%1-15.9%1-27.4%1-36.2%1-4+7.1%2 2-02.2%2-15.5%2-26.9%2-35.8%2-4+6.6%3 3-01.3%3-13.4%3-24.3%3-33.6%3-4+4.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-12.4%4+-23.0%4+-32.5%4+-4+2.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.1% 32.3% 3.10 -3.6%

Draw 21.4% 24.4% 4.10 -7.4%

Away win 47.6% 54.1% 1.85 -11.9%

Over 2.5 72.3% 80.0% 1.25 -9.6%

Over 3.5 50.5% 58.8% 1.70 -14.1%

BTTS 69.3% 80.0% 1.25 -13.4%

Home O1.5 56.8% 55.6% 1.80 +2.2%

Away O1.5 67.9% 70.4% 1.42 -3.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob69.3%

A 48% / xG 1.9-2.5 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.4%

#2 2–2 6.9%

#3 1–1 5.9%

#4 1–3 6.2%

#5 2–3✓ 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rochedale1.9

Brisbane City2.5

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.3% · O3.5 PROB 50.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ROCHEDALE · PPG 1.33

BRISBANE CITY · PPG 2.13

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs Home AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Rochedale (H) 31.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -3.6%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -7.4%

Brisbane City (A) 47.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -11.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rochedale face Brisbane City in Australia - NPL Queensland on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rochedale a 31% chance, the draw 21% and Brisbane City 48%, so Brisbane City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Rochedale and 2.5 for Brisbane City (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rochedale are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.13 for Brisbane City. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +2.2%. This match finished 2-3.

Rochedale vs Brisbane City Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

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