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Gold C. Knights vs Wynnum Wolves Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 06:00

Gold C. Knights

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Wynnum Wolves

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.4% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-13.3%0-22.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-06.3%1-17.9%1-25.0%1-32.1%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.4%2-19.4%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.9%3-17.4%3-24.7%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-17.7%4+-24.8%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.5% 57.1% 1.75 +0.6%

Draw 22.4% 23.8% 4.20 -3.5%

Away win 20.2% 28.6% 3.50 -17.6%

Over 2.5 64.4% 76.9% 1.30 -16.3%

Over 3.5 42.3% 56.5% 1.77 -25.1%

BTTS 62.4% 76.9% 1.30 -18.9%

Home O1.5 62.9% 71.4% 1.40 -11.9%

Away O1.5 37.7% 51.3% 1.95 -26.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 0.0%

Bet Hit 76%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.4%

H 57% / xG 2.4-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.4%

#2 1–1 7.9%

#3 2–0 7.4%

#4 3–1 7.4%

#5 2–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gold C. Knights2.4

Wynnum Wolves1.3

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GOLD C. KNIGHTS · PPG 2.50

WYNNUM WOLVES · PPG 1.56

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=57.5%

Win probability 1X2

Gold C. Knights (H) 57.5%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +0.6%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -3.5%

Wynnum Wolves (A) 20.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -17.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gold C. Knights face Wynnum Wolves in Australia - NPL Queensland on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gold C. Knights a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Wynnum Wolves 20%, so Gold C. Knights are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Gold C. Knights and 1.3 for Wynnum Wolves (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gold C. Knights are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.56 for Wynnum Wolves. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.6%.

Gold C. Knights vs Wynnum Wolves Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

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