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Moreton City E. vs Peninsula Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 06:30

Moreton City E.

PPG 2.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Peninsula

PPG 2.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-14.6%0-24.5%0-33.0%0-4+2.3%1 1-04.2%1-18.2%1-28.1%1-35.3%1-4+4.1%2 2-03.7%2-17.4%2-27.2%2-34.7%2-4+3.7%3 3-02.2%3-14.4%3-24.3%3-32.8%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.9%4+-22.9%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 46.5% 2.15 -21.3%

Draw 21.9% 25.0% 4.00 -7.4%

Away win 41.5% 38.5% 2.60 +7.9%

Over 2.5 67.1% 80.0% 1.25 -16.1%

Over 3.5 44.5% 58.8% 1.70 -24.3%

BTTS 63.8% 80.0% 1.25 -20.3%

Home O1.5 53.0% 66.7% 1.50 -20.5%

Away O1.5 50.2% 60.6% 1.65 -17.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 0.0%

Bet Hit 76%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.8%

A 42% / xG 1.8-2.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 1–2 8.1%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 1–3 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Moreton City E.1.8

Peninsula2.0

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MORETON CITY E. · PPG 2.44

PENINSULA · PPG 2.38

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.44), Away EXCELLENT (2.38)

Win probability 1X2

Moreton City E. (H) 36.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -21.3%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.4%

Peninsula (A) 41.5%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Moreton City E. face Peninsula in Australia - NPL Queensland on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Moreton City E. a 37% chance, the draw 22% and Peninsula 42%, so Peninsula are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Moreton City E. and 2.0 for Peninsula (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Moreton City E. are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 2.38 for Peninsula. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.9%.

Moreton City E. vs Peninsula Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

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