Today / Australia - NPL Queensland / Eastern Suburbs vs Magic United

Eastern Suburbs vs Magic United Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 08:00

Eastern Suburbs

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Magic United

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-12.4%0-21.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.6%1-16.6%1-23.8%1-31.5%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.6%2-18.9%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.9%3-18.0%3-24.7%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-09.0%4+-110.5%4+-26.1%4+-32.4%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.9% 78.1% 1.28 -24.6%

Draw 19.4% 18.5% 5.40 +2.9%

Away win 21.7% 13.5% 7.40 +36.4%

Over 2.5 67.1% 82.0% 1.22 -18.1%

Over 3.5 48.6% 61.7% 1.62 -21.3%

BTTS 63.4% 71.4% 1.40 -11.2%

Home O1.5 63.5% 84.7% 1.18 -25.1%

Away O1.5 36.2% 37.7% 2.65 -4.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 0.0%

Bet Hit 76%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.4%

H 59% / xG 2.7-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.9%

#2 3–1 8.0%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 1–1 6.6%

#5 3–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eastern Suburbs2.7

Magic United1.2

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 48.6%

Form & verdict PPG

EASTERN SUBURBS · PPG 1.44

MAGIC UNITED · PPG 0.78

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.44) > Away POOR (0.78)

Win probability 1X2

Eastern Suburbs (H) 58.9%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -24.6%

Draw 19.4%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +2.9%

Magic United (A) 21.7%

ODDS 7.40 · IMPLIED 13.5% EV +36.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eastern Suburbs face Magic United in Australia - NPL Queensland on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eastern Suburbs a 59% chance, the draw 19% and Magic United 22%, so Eastern Suburbs are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Eastern Suburbs and 1.2 for Magic United (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eastern Suburbs are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.78 for Magic United. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +36.4%.

Eastern Suburbs vs Magic United Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

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