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Western Knights vs Sorrento Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 07:00

Western Knights

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Sorrento

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.0%0-23.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-05.7%1-18.5%1-26.3%1-33.1%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.1%2-19.1%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.3%3-16.4%3-24.8%3-32.4%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-15.6%4+-24.2%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.5% — — —

Draw 22.4% — — —

Away win 28.2% — — —

Over 2.5 66.4% — — —

Over 3.5 43.0% — — —

BTTS 63.3% — — —

Home O1.5 61.2% — — —

Away O1.5 49.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 3.8%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.3%

H 50% / xG 2.1-1.5 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 2–2 6.7%

#4 3–1 6.4%

#5 1–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Western Knights2.1

Sorrento1.5

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.4% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

WESTERN KNIGHTS · PPG 2.00

SORRENTO · PPG 1.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away GOOD (1.86)

Win probability 1X2

Western Knights (H) 49.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sorrento (A) 28.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Western Knights face Sorrento in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Western Knights a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Sorrento 28%, so Western Knights are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Western Knights and 1.5 for Sorrento (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Western Knights are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.86 for Sorrento. This match finished 2-0.

Western Knights vs Sorrento Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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