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Armadale vs O. Kingsway Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 07:00

Armadale

PPG 1.25 · HOME

1 – 6

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

O. Kingsway

PPG 2.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.4% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-13.2%0-24.3%0-33.8%0-4+4.9%1 1-02.1%1-15.6%1-27.5%1-36.7%1-4+8.6%2 2-01.8%2-14.9%2-26.6%2-35.9%2-4+7.5%3 3-01.1%3-12.9%3-23.8%3-33.4%3-4+4.4%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.9%4+-22.5%4+-32.2%4+-4+2.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.6% 27.8% 3.60 -0.4%

Draw 19.9% 26.3% 3.80 -14.6%

Away win 52.5% 57.1% 1.75 -8.1%

Over 2.5 72.4% 76.9% 1.30 -5.9%

Over 3.5 53.2% 57.8% 1.73 -8.0%

BTTS 69.1% 75.2% 1.33 -8.1%

Home O1.5 53.6% 47.6% 2.10 +12.6%

Away O1.5 69.2% 71.4% 1.40 -3.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 3.8%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-6

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob69.1%

A 52% / xG 1.7-2.7 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.5%

#2 1–3 6.7%

#3 2–2 6.6%

#4 1–1 5.6%

#5 2–3 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Armadale1.7

O. Kingsway2.7

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.4% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ARMADALE · PPG 1.25

O. KINGSWAY · PPG 2.13

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs Home AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Armadale (H) 27.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -0.4%

Draw 19.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -14.6%

O. Kingsway (A) 52.5%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Armadale face O. Kingsway in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Armadale a 28% chance, the draw 20% and O. Kingsway 53%, so O. Kingsway are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Armadale and 2.7 for O. Kingsway (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Armadale are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 2.13 for O. Kingsway. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +12.6%. This match finished 1-6.

Armadale vs O. Kingsway Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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