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Perth Glory B vs Balcatta Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 07:00

Perth Glory B

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Balcatta

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.7% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.4%0-21.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-02.8%1-14.4%1-23.4%1-31.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-04.5%2-17.0%2-25.4%2-32.8%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.7%3-17.3%3-25.7%3-32.9%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-08.2%4+-112.8%4+-29.9%4+-35.1%4+-4+2.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.6% 48.8% 2.05 +24.2%

Draw 17.8% 26.7% 3.75 -20.0%

Away win 21.6% 35.7% 2.80 -23.7%

Over 2.5 75.7% 73.5% 1.36 +2.9%

Over 3.5 53.2% 54.6% 1.83 -2.6%

BTTS 69.1% 74.1% 1.35 -6.7%

Home O1.5 75.0% 65.4% 1.53 +14.8%

Away O1.5 49.8% 52.4% 1.91 -4.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 3.8%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob69.1%

H 61% / xG 3.2-1.6 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.3%

#2 2–1 7.0%

#3 4–1 5.8%

#4 3–2 5.7%

#5 2–2 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Perth Glory B3.2

Balcatta1.6

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.7% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PERTH GLORY B · PPG 1.00

BALCATTA · PPG 0.38

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.38)

Win probability 1X2

Perth Glory B (H) 60.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +24.2%

Draw 17.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -20.0%

Balcatta (A) 21.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -23.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Perth Glory B face Balcatta in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Perth Glory B a 61% chance, the draw 18% and Balcatta 22%, so Perth Glory B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Perth Glory B and 1.6 for Balcatta (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Perth Glory B are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.38 for Balcatta. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +55.3%. This match finished 1-3.

Perth Glory B vs Balcatta Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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