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Stirling vs Perth RedStar Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 07:00

Stirling

PPG 1.13 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Perth RedStar

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-14.4%0-24.0%0-32.4%0-4+1.6%1 1-04.7%1-18.4%1-27.6%1-34.5%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.5%2-18.0%2-27.2%2-34.3%2-4+2.9%3 3-02.8%3-15.1%3-24.6%3-32.8%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.8%4+-23.4%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 40.0% 2.50 +11.5%

Draw 21.6% 30.3% 3.30 -17.2%

Away win 33.9% 41.7% 2.40 -18.6%

Over 2.5 65.6% 66.7% 1.50 -1.6%

Over 3.5 42.3% 45.5% 2.20 -6.9%

BTTS 63.3% 71.4% 1.40 -11.4%

Home O1.5 54.7% 52.4% 1.91 +4.5%

Away O1.5 49.8% 54.6% 1.83 -8.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 3.8%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.3%

H 45% / xG 1.9-1.8 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stirling1.9

Perth RedStar1.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.6% · O3.5 PROB 42.3%

Form & verdict PPG

STIRLING · PPG 1.13

PERTH REDSTAR · PPG 1.67

⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength

70%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.67) strong but model favors Home (P=44.6%)

Win probability 1X2

Stirling (H) 44.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +11.5%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -17.2%

Perth RedStar (A) 33.9%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stirling face Perth RedStar in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stirling a 45% chance, the draw 22% and Perth RedStar 34%, so Stirling are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Stirling and 1.8 for Perth RedStar (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stirling are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.67 for Perth RedStar. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Stirling vs Perth RedStar Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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