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Fremantle City vs Bayswater Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 07:00

Fremantle City

PPG 1.89 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Bayswater

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-13.7%0-23.9%0-32.8%0-4+2.4%1 1-03.4%1-17.1%1-27.6%1-35.3%1-4+4.6%2 2-03.3%2-16.9%2-27.3%2-35.1%2-4+4.4%3 3-02.1%3-14.4%3-24.7%3-33.3%3-4+2.9%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-13.3%4+-23.5%4+-32.5%4+-4+2.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.0% 30.8% 3.25 +23.5%

Draw 21.2% 28.6% 3.50 -15.5%

Away win 40.8% 52.4% 1.91 -22.1%

Over 2.5 69.4% 69.4% 1.44 -0.1%

Over 3.5 49.0% 50.0% 2.00 -2.0%

BTTS 69.1% 71.4% 1.40 -3.3%

Home O1.5 54.7% 45.5% 2.20 +20.3%

Away O1.5 51.1% 61.7% 1.62 -17.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 3.8%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob69.1%

A 41% / xG 1.9-2.1 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 7.1%

#2 1–2 7.6%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 2–1 6.9%

#5 1–3 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fremantle City1.9

Bayswater2.1

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FREMANTLE CITY · PPG 1.89

BAYSWATER · PPG 1.63

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.89), Away GOOD (1.63)

Win probability 1X2

Fremantle City (H) 38.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +23.5%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -15.5%

Bayswater (A) 40.8%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -22.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fremantle City face Bayswater in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fremantle City a 38% chance, the draw 21% and Bayswater 41%, so Bayswater are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Fremantle City and 2.1 for Bayswater (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fremantle City are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.63 for Bayswater. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +25.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Fremantle City vs Bayswater Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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