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Stirling Lions vs Armadale Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 07:00

Stirling Lions

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Armadale

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-13.1%0-22.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-04.4%1-17.2%1-25.8%1-33.2%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.2%2-18.4%2-26.8%2-33.7%2-4+2.2%3 3-04.1%3-16.6%3-25.4%3-32.9%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-16.7%4+-25.5%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 52.4% 1.91 -4.9%

Draw 22.3% 25.0% 4.00 -6.5%

Away win 27.8% 34.5% 2.90 -11.6%

Over 2.5 67.0% 75.2% 1.33 -10.9%

Over 3.5 44.5% 55.6% 1.80 -19.9%

BTTS 64.5% 75.2% 1.33 -14.2%

Home O1.5 61.8% 66.7% 1.50 -7.3%

Away O1.5 49.0% 52.4% 1.91 -6.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 6.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob64.5%

H 50% / xG 2.3-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.4%

#2 1–1 7.2%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 3–1 6.6%

#5 1–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stirling Lions2.3

Armadale1.6

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

STIRLING LIONS · PPG 1.00

ARMADALE · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Stirling Lions (H) 49.8%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -4.9%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.5%

Armadale (A) 27.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stirling Lions face Armadale in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stirling Lions a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Armadale 28%, so Stirling Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Stirling Lions and 1.6 for Armadale (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stirling Lions are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.67 for Armadale. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +0.1%.

Stirling Lions vs Armadale Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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