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Dandenong Thunder vs Altona Magic Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Regular Season - 22 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 07:00

Dandenong Thunder

PPG 0.90 · HOME

UPCOMING

Altona Magic

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-17.8%0-26.6%0-33.7%0-4+2.3%1 1-06.4%1-110.8%1-29.1%1-35.1%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.5%2-17.5%2-26.3%2-33.6%2-4+2.2%3 3-02.1%3-13.5%3-22.9%3-31.6%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.6%4+-21.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.8% 25.3% 3.95 +29.6%

Draw 24.4% 25.3% 3.95 -2.2%

Away win 42.8% 59.5% 1.68 -28.1%

Over 2.5 62.4% 64.5% 1.55 -3.3%

Over 3.5 39.9% 41.7% 2.40 -4.2%

BTTS 62.5% 64.5% 1.55 -3.1%

Home O1.5 41.3% 37.7% 2.65 +9.4%

Away O1.5 49.0% 63.7% 1.57 -23.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob62.5%

A 43% / xG 1.4-1.7 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 0–2 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dandenong Thunder1.4

Altona Magic1.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DANDENONG THUNDER · PPG 0.90

ALTONA MAGIC · PPG 1.50

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dandenong Thunder (H) 32.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +29.6%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -2.2%

Altona Magic (A) 42.8%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -28.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dandenong Thunder face Altona Magic in Australia - NPL Victoria on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dandenong Thunder a 33% chance, the draw 24% and Altona Magic 43%, so Altona Magic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Dandenong Thunder and 1.7 for Altona Magic (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dandenong Thunder are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 1.50 for Altona Magic. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +31.7%.

Dandenong Thunder vs Altona Magic Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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