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Altona Magic vs Heidelberg Utd Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Regular Season - 21 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 05:15

Altona Magic

PPG 0.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Heidelberg Utd

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-110.3%0-29.1%0-35.3%0-4+3.4%1 1-06.4%1-111.1%1-29.8%1-35.7%1-4+3.7%2 2-03.4%2-16.0%2-25.3%2-33.1%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.2%3-12.2%3-21.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.4% 21.1% 4.75 +23.8%

Draw 25.3% 25.3% 3.95 -0.0%

Away win 45.3% 63.7% 1.57 -28.9%

Over 2.5 54.1% 64.5% 1.55 -16.1%

Over 3.5 33.6% 42.0% 2.38 -20.0%

BTTS 55.5% 63.7% 1.57 -12.9%

Home O1.5 35.6% 33.9% 2.95 +5.0%

Away O1.5 50.2% 66.7% 1.50 -24.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -7.5%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob55.5%

A 45% / xG 1.1-1.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 9.1%

#4 0–1 10.3%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Altona Magic1.1

Heidelberg Utd1.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ALTONA MAGIC · PPG 0.70

HEIDELBERG UTD · PPG 1.70

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.70) vs Home POOR (0.70)

Win probability 1X2

Altona Magic (H) 29.4%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +23.8%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -0.0%

Heidelberg Utd (A) 45.3%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -28.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Altona Magic face Heidelberg Utd in Australia - NPL Victoria on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Altona Magic a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Heidelberg Utd 45%, so Heidelberg Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Altona Magic and 1.8 for Heidelberg Utd (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Altona Magic are averaging 0.70 points per game versus 1.70 for Heidelberg Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +23.8%.

Altona Magic vs Heidelberg Utd Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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