Today / Australia - NPL Victoria / South Melbourne vs Preston Lions

South Melbourne vs Preston Lions Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Regular Season - 21 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 05:15

South Melbourne

PPG 0.90 · HOME

UPCOMING

Preston Lions

PPG 2.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.2% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-111.9%0-210.4%0-36.1%0-4+3.9%1 1-06.4%1-111.2%1-29.8%1-35.7%1-4+3.7%2 2-03.0%2-15.3%2-24.6%2-32.7%2-4+1.7%3 3-00.9%3-11.6%3-21.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.1% 44.4% 2.25 -28.8%

Draw 25.1% 28.2% 3.55 -6.5%

Away win 51.8% 37.0% 2.70 +39.9%

Over 2.5 54.1% 60.6% 1.65 -10.7%

Over 3.5 33.2% 38.5% 2.60 -13.7%

BTTS 54.2% 65.4% 1.53 -17.1%

Home O1.5 33.9% 51.8% 1.93 -34.6%

Away O1.5 50.2% 46.5% 2.15 +7.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -7.5%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob54.2%

A 52% / xG 0.9-1.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 0–2 10.4%

#3 0–1 11.9%

#4 1–2 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South Melbourne0.9

Preston Lions1.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH MELBOURNE · PPG 0.90

PRESTON LIONS · PPG 2.27

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.27) vs Home POOR (0.90)

Win probability 1X2

South Melbourne (H) 23.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -28.8%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -6.5%

Preston Lions (A) 51.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +39.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

South Melbourne face Preston Lions in Australia - NPL Victoria on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South Melbourne a 23% chance, the draw 25% and Preston Lions 52%, so Preston Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for South Melbourne and 1.8 for Preston Lions (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South Melbourne are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 2.27 for Preston Lions. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +39.9%.

South Melbourne vs Preston Lions Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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