Today / Australia - NPL Victoria / Oakleigh Cannons vs South Melbourne

Oakleigh Cannons vs South Melbourne Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Regular Season - 22 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 10:15

Oakleigh Cannons

PPG 2.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

South Melbourne

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-14.8%0-22.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.2%1-19.7%1-25.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.6%3-16.6%3-23.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-15.3%4+-23.1%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 57.8% 1.73 -8.7%

Draw 22.0% 26.3% 3.80 -9.8%

Away win 25.1% 25.6% 3.90 -1.3%

Over 2.5 63.7% 64.5% 1.55 -1.3%

Over 3.5 40.0% 42.0% 2.38 -4.8%

BTTS 62.5% 66.7% 1.50 -6.3%

Home O1.5 55.7% 62.5% 1.60 -10.9%

Away O1.5 36.6% 38.5% 2.60 -4.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.5%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–0 8.2%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oakleigh Cannons2.0

South Melbourne1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

OAKLEIGH CANNONS · PPG 2.20

SOUTH MELBOURNE · PPG 2.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Oakleigh Cannons (H) 52.8%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -8.7%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.8%

South Melbourne (A) 25.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oakleigh Cannons face South Melbourne in Australia - NPL Victoria on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oakleigh Cannons a 53% chance, the draw 22% and South Melbourne 25%, so Oakleigh Cannons are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Oakleigh Cannons and 1.2 for South Melbourne (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oakleigh Cannons are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 2.20 for South Melbourne. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +7.6%.

Oakleigh Cannons vs South Melbourne Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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