Today / Australia - NPL Victoria / Oakleigh Cannons vs South Melbourne

Oakleigh Cannons vs South Melbourne Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Matchday 22 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 10:15

Oakleigh Cannons

PPG 2.20 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

South Melbourne

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 64% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-15.1%0-23.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.6%1-110.0%1-25.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.8%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.6%3-16.5%3-23.7%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-15.0%4+-22.9%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 54.1% 1.85 -2.7%

Draw 22.1% 27.0% 3.70 -10.9%

Away win 25.3% 29.4% 3.40 -8.4%

Over 2.5 63.7% 64.5% 1.55 -1.3%

Over 3.5 40.0% 42.0% 2.38 -4.8%

BTTS 62.5% 67.6% 1.48 -7.5%

Home O1.5 55.7% 59.9% 1.67 -7.0%

Away O1.5 36.4% 42.0% 2.38 -13.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 116 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.5%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 1–0 8.6%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oakleigh Cannons2.0

South Melbourne1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

OAKLEIGH CANNONS · PPG 2.20

SOUTH MELBOURNE · PPG 2.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

64%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.81 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Oakleigh Cannons (H) 52.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -2.7%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.9%

South Melbourne (A) 25.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -8.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oakleigh Cannons face South Melbourne in Australia - NPL Victoria on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oakleigh Cannons a 53% chance, the draw 22% and South Melbourne 25%, so Oakleigh Cannons are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Oakleigh Cannons and 1.2 for South Melbourne (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oakleigh Cannons are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 2.20 for South Melbourne. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +1.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Oakleigh Cannons vs South Melbourne Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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