Today / Australia - NPL Victoria / Avondale vs St. Albans

Avondale vs St. Albans Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Regular Season - 21 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 05:00

Avondale

PPG 2.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

St. Albans

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.4% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-11.3%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.0%1-14.3%1-22.2%1-30.8%1-4+0.3%2 2-06.8%2-17.2%2-23.8%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.6%3-18.1%3-24.3%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-015.1%4+-116.0%4+-28.5%4+-33.0%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.2% 71.4% 1.40 -10.1%

Draw 16.7% 21.7% 4.60 -13.9%

Away win 19.1% 16.0% 6.25 +11.6%

Over 2.5 71.4% 72.5% 1.38 -1.5%

Over 3.5 49.2% 51.3% 1.95 -4.1%

BTTS 62.4% 66.7% 1.50 -6.4%

Home O1.5 76.2% 76.9% 1.30 -0.9%

Away O1.5 36.2% 33.3% 3.00 +8.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -7.5%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.4%

H 64% / xG 3.4-1.1 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.1%

#2 3–0 7.6%

#3 2–1 7.2%

#4 4–1 6.8%

#5 2–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Avondale3.4

St. Albans1.1

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AVONDALE · PPG 2.20

ST. ALBANS · PPG 1.20

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs P(Home)=64.2%

Win probability 1X2

Avondale (H) 64.2%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -10.1%

Draw 16.7%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -13.9%

St. Albans (A) 19.1%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Avondale face St. Albans in Australia - NPL Victoria on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Avondale a 64% chance, the draw 17% and St. Albans 19%, so Avondale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Avondale and 1.1 for St. Albans (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Avondale are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.20 for St. Albans. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +20.7%.

Avondale vs St. Albans Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL Victoria Predictions