Today / Australia - NPL Victoria / Preston Lions vs Bentleigh Greens

Preston Lions vs Bentleigh Greens Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Matchday 22 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 10:30

Preston Lions

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Bentleigh Greens

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDWL

// Model verdict

Home 71% chance

Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-14.8%0-21.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.1%1-19.3%1-22.8%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.7%2-19.0%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.5%3-15.8%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-14.4%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.2% 74.1% 1.35 -13.3%

Draw 21.3% 22.7% 4.40 -3.8%

Away win 14.4% 13.3% 7.50 +4.8%

Over 2.5 50.3% 58.8% 1.70 -14.5%

Over 3.5 28.9% 36.4% 2.75 -12.3%

BTTS 48.5% 51.8% 1.93 -6.4%

Home O1.5 55.7% 69.0% 1.45 -19.2%

Away O1.5 19.1% 22.2% 4.50 -8.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 116 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.5%

H 64% / xG 1.9-0.6 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.7%

#2 1–0✓ 15.1%

#3 1–1 9.3%

#4 3–0 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Preston Lions1.9

Bentleigh Greens0.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PRESTON LIONS · PPG 1.62

BENTLEIGH GREENS · PPG 0.44

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

71%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.32 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Preston Lions (H) 64.2%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -13.3%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -3.8%

Bentleigh Greens (A) 14.4%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Preston Lions face Bentleigh Greens in Australia - NPL Victoria on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Preston Lions a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Bentleigh Greens 14%, so Preston Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Preston Lions and 0.6 for Bentleigh Greens (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Preston Lions are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.44 for Bentleigh Greens. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +7.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Preston Lions vs Bentleigh Greens Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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