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Preston Lions vs Bentleigh Greens Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Regular Season - 22 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 10:30

Preston Lions

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bentleigh Greens

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.4% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-14.7%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.8%1-19.2%1-22.8%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.6%2-19.0%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.6%3-15.9%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-14.6%4+-21.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.4% 75.2% 1.33 -14.3%

Draw 21.4% 21.7% 4.60 -0.9%

Away win 14.2% 13.5% 7.40 +3.0%

Over 2.5 51.5% 58.8% 1.70 -12.4%

Over 3.5 29.8% 36.4% 2.75 -10.8%

BTTS 48.5% 51.3% 1.95 -5.4%

Home O1.5 55.7% 69.0% 1.45 -19.2%

Away O1.5 19.1% 21.1% 4.75 -5.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.5%

H 64% / xG 2.0-0.6 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.6%

#2 1–0 14.8%

#3 1–1 9.2%

#4 3–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Preston Lions2.0

Bentleigh Greens0.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PRESTON LIONS · PPG 1.62

BENTLEIGH GREENS · PPG 0.44

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.35 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Preston Lions (H) 64.4%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -14.3%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -0.9%

Bentleigh Greens (A) 14.2%

ODDS 7.40 · IMPLIED 13.5% EV +3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Preston Lions face Bentleigh Greens in Australia - NPL Victoria on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Preston Lions a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Bentleigh Greens 14%, so Preston Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Preston Lions and 0.6 for Bentleigh Greens (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Preston Lions are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.44 for Bentleigh Greens. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +17.4%.

Preston Lions vs Bentleigh Greens Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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