Today / Australia - NPL Victoria / St. Albans Saints vs Hume City

St. Albans Saints vs Hume City Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Matchday 22 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 09:30

St. Albans Saints

PPG 1.10 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Hume City

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5 58% chance

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-18.8%0-29.5%0-36.9%0-4+6.2%1 1-04.2%1-19.1%1-29.9%1-37.1%1-4+6.4%2 2-02.2%2-14.7%2-25.1%2-33.7%2-4+3.3%3 3-00.8%3-11.6%3-21.8%3-31.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.8% 30.8% 3.25 -19.4%

Draw 22.2% 27.4% 3.65 -11.4%

Away win 57.0% 52.4% 1.91 +8.9%

Over 2.5 63.7% 64.5% 1.55 -1.3%

Over 3.5 40.4% 42.0% 2.38 -3.9%

BTTS 60.1% 67.6% 1.48 -11.1%

Home O1.5 35.0% 43.5% 2.30 -19.5%

Away O1.5 54.5% 58.8% 1.70 -7.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 116 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob60.1%

A 57% / xG 1.0-2.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.5%

#4 0–1 8.8%

#5 1–3 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Albans Saints1.0

Hume City2.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. ALBANS SAINTS · PPG 1.10

HUME CITY · PPG 2.00

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

Chance this pick lands

58%

DANGER

xG gap -1.13 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

St. Albans Saints (H) 20.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -19.4%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -11.4%

Hume City (A) 57.0%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +8.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Albans Saints face Hume City in Australia - NPL Victoria on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Albans Saints a 21% chance, the draw 22% and Hume City 57%, so Hume City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for St. Albans Saints and 2.2 for Hume City (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Albans Saints are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 2.00 for Hume City. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +34.2%. This match finished 3-2.

St. Albans Saints vs Hume City Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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