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St. Albans Saints vs Hume City Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Regular Season - 22 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 09:30

St. Albans Saints

PPG 1.10 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hume City

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a clear edge.

+15.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-18.4%0-29.3%0-36.9%0-4+6.4%1 1-04.0%1-18.9%1-29.8%1-37.3%1-4+6.8%2 2-02.1%2-14.7%2-25.2%2-33.8%2-4+3.6%3 3-00.7%3-11.6%3-21.8%3-31.4%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.5% 30.8% 3.25 -20.0%

Draw 22.3% 27.4% 3.65 -11.2%

Away win 57.2% 52.4% 1.91 +9.3%

Over 2.5 63.7% 61.7% 1.62 +3.2%

Over 3.5 41.3% 40.0% 2.50 +3.3%

BTTS 61.8% 65.4% 1.53 -5.5%

Home O1.5 35.0% 41.7% 2.40 -16.0%

Away O1.5 67.0% 57.8% 1.73 +15.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob61.8%

A 57% / xG 1.1-2.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 9.3%

#4 1–3 7.3%

#5 0–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Albans Saints1.1

Hume City2.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. ALBANS SAINTS · PPG 1.10

HUME CITY · PPG 2.00

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.17 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

St. Albans Saints (H) 20.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -20.0%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -11.2%

Hume City (A) 57.2%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Albans Saints face Hume City in Australia - NPL Victoria on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Albans Saints a 21% chance, the draw 22% and Hume City 57%, so Hume City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for St. Albans Saints and 2.2 for Hume City (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Albans Saints are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 2.00 for Hume City. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +22.1%.

St. Albans Saints vs Hume City Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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