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Melbourne City II vs Avondale Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Regular Season - 22 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 05:00

Melbourne City II

PPG 1.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Avondale

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-16.0%0-25.1%0-32.9%0-4+1.8%1 1-05.8%1-19.9%1-28.4%1-34.7%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.8%2-18.1%2-26.9%2-33.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-02.6%3-14.4%3-23.8%3-32.1%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.6%4+-22.2%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.4% 25.0% 4.00 +65.6%

Draw 24.2% 24.4% 4.10 -0.5%

Away win 34.4% 60.6% 1.65 -43.2%

Over 2.5 63.7% 72.5% 1.38 -12.1%

Over 3.5 40.0% 51.3% 1.95 -22.0%

BTTS 62.7% 71.4% 1.40 -12.2%

Home O1.5 53.5% 43.5% 2.30 +23.1%

Away O1.5 49.0% 70.4% 1.42 -30.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob62.7%

A 34% / xG 1.6-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–2 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Melbourne City II1.6

Avondale1.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MELBOURNE CITY II · PPG 1.11

AVONDALE · PPG 1.20

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Melbourne City II (H) 41.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +65.6%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -0.5%

Avondale (A) 34.4%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -43.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Melbourne City II face Avondale in Australia - NPL Victoria on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Melbourne City II a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Avondale 34%, so Melbourne City II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Melbourne City II and 1.7 for Avondale (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Melbourne City II are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 1.20 for Avondale. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +61.7%.

Melbourne City II vs Avondale Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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