Today / Australia - NPL Victoria / Green Gully vs Dandenong City

Green Gully vs Dandenong City Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Regular Season - 22 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 09:30

Green Gully

PPG 0.64 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dandenong City

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-112.0%0-29.9%0-35.4%0-4+3.2%1 1-07.1%1-111.7%1-29.6%1-35.2%1-4+3.1%2 2-03.5%2-15.7%2-24.7%2-32.5%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.1%3-11.8%3-21.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.7% 32.3% 3.10 -4.8%

Draw 24.9% 28.2% 3.55 -7.0%

Away win 44.4% 50.0% 2.00 -11.2%

Over 2.5 53.9% 58.8% 1.70 -8.4%

Over 3.5 32.8% 36.4% 2.75 -9.8%

BTTS 55.4% 63.7% 1.57 -13.0%

Home O1.5 35.0% 40.8% 2.45 -14.2%

Away O1.5 49.0% 54.1% 1.85 -9.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob55.4%

A 44% / xG 1.0-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 0–1 12.0%

#3 0–2 9.9%

#4 1–2 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Green Gully1.0

Dandenong City1.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GREEN GULLY · PPG 0.64

DANDENONG CITY · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.67 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Green Gully (H) 30.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.8%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.0%

Dandenong City (A) 44.4%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Green Gully face Dandenong City in Australia - NPL Victoria on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Green Gully a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Dandenong City 44%, so Dandenong City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Green Gully and 1.6 for Dandenong City (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Green Gully are averaging 0.64 points per game versus 0.80 for Dandenong City.

Green Gully vs Dandenong City Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL Victoria Predictions