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Green Gully vs Dandenong City Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Matchday 22 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 09:30

Green Gully

PPG 0.64 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLLW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Dandenong City

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-112.3%0-29.9%0-35.3%0-4+3.1%1 1-07.3%1-111.8%1-29.5%1-35.1%1-4+2.9%2 2-03.5%2-15.7%2-24.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.1%3-11.8%3-21.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.1% 34.5% 2.90 -9.8%

Draw 25.1% 28.6% 3.50 -7.3%

Away win 43.8% 47.6% 2.10 -8.0%

Over 2.5 53.9% 58.8% 1.70 -8.4%

Over 3.5 32.8% 36.4% 2.75 -9.8%

BTTS 54.1% 63.7% 1.57 -15.1%

Home O1.5 34.8% 42.6% 2.35 -18.2%

Away O1.5 49.0% 51.8% 1.93 -5.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 116 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.1%

A 44% / xG 1.0-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 0–1 12.3%

#3 0–2 9.9%

#4 1–2 9.5%

#5 0–0✓ 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Green Gully1.0

Dandenong City1.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GREEN GULLY · PPG 0.64

DANDENONG CITY · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

61%

DANGER

xG gap -0.65 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Green Gully (H) 31.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -9.8%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.3%

Dandenong City (A) 43.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Green Gully face Dandenong City in Australia - NPL Victoria on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Green Gully a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Dandenong City 44%, so Dandenong City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Green Gully and 1.6 for Dandenong City (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Green Gully are averaging 0.64 points per game versus 0.80 for Dandenong City. This match finished 0-0.

Green Gully vs Dandenong City Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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