Today / Australia - NPL Victoria / Heidelberg United vs Sunshine Georgies

Heidelberg United vs Sunshine Georgies Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Matchday 22 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 09:30

Heidelberg United

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sunshine Georgies

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-18.3%0-25.0%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.0%1-112.2%1-27.4%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-19.0%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.6%3-14.4%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 67.6% 1.48 -35.3%

Draw 26.0% 23.8% 4.20 +5.5%

Away win 30.3% 18.2% 5.50 +66.6%

Over 2.5 53.0% 64.5% 1.55 -17.8%

Over 3.5 31.9% 42.0% 2.38 -24.1%

BTTS 55.4% 61.7% 1.62 -10.3%

Home O1.5 46.3% 69.0% 1.45 -32.9%

Away O1.5 36.9% 30.8% 3.25 +19.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 116 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 0–0✓ 6.8%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 2–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heidelberg United1.5

Sunshine Georgies1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.0% · O3.5 PROB 31.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HEIDELBERG UNITED · PPG 1.50

SUNSHINE GEORGIES · PPG 1.40

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Heidelberg United (H) 43.7%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -35.3%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +5.5%

Sunshine Georgies (A) 30.3%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +66.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Heidelberg United face Sunshine Georgies in Australia - NPL Victoria on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heidelberg United a 44% chance, the draw 26% and Sunshine Georgies 30%, so Heidelberg United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Heidelberg United and 1.2 for Sunshine Georgies (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heidelberg United are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.40 for Sunshine Georgies. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +50.7%. This match finished 0-0.

Heidelberg United vs Sunshine Georgies Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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