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Heidelberg United vs Sunshine Georgies Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Regular Season - 22 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 09:30

Heidelberg United

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sunshine Georgies

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-18.0%0-24.9%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.7%1-112.0%1-27.4%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-19.0%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.7%3-14.5%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 69.4% 1.44 -36.2%

Draw 25.5% 23.8% 4.20 +4.3%

Away win 30.2% 16.7% 6.00 +81.2%

Over 2.5 53.9% 64.5% 1.55 -16.4%

Over 3.5 32.8% 42.0% 2.38 -21.9%

BTTS 55.4% 60.6% 1.65 -8.6%

Home O1.5 46.3% 69.4% 1.44 -33.3%

Away O1.5 36.9% 29.4% 3.40 +25.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 0–0 6.5%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heidelberg United1.5

Sunshine Georgies1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HEIDELBERG UNITED · PPG 1.50

SUNSHINE GEORGIES · PPG 1.40

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Heidelberg United (H) 44.3%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -36.2%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +4.3%

Sunshine Georgies (A) 30.2%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +81.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Heidelberg United face Sunshine Georgies in Australia - NPL Victoria on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heidelberg United a 44% chance, the draw 26% and Sunshine Georgies 30%, so Heidelberg United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Heidelberg United and 1.2 for Sunshine Georgies (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heidelberg United are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.40 for Sunshine Georgies. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +63.0%.

Heidelberg United vs Sunshine Georgies Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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