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Hume City vs Oakleigh C. Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Regular Season - 21 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 04:00

Hume City

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Oakleigh C.

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-110.0%0-27.6%0-33.9%0-4+2.1%1 1-07.9%1-112.0%1-29.1%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.7%2-17.2%2-25.5%2-32.8%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.9%3-12.9%3-22.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.8% 35.7% 2.80 -11.0%

Draw 26.3% 28.6% 3.50 -4.8%

Away win 41.9% 45.5% 2.20 -7.8%

Over 2.5 53.0% 60.6% 1.65 -12.6%

Over 3.5 32.6% 38.5% 2.60 -15.2%

BTTS 55.5% 66.7% 1.50 -16.8%

Home O1.5 37.5% 45.5% 2.20 -17.5%

Away O1.5 50.2% 52.4% 1.91 -4.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -7.5%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.5%

A 42% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.6%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 0–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hume City1.2

Oakleigh C.1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HUME CITY · PPG 2.00

OAKLEIGH C. · PPG 2.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away EXCELLENT (2.20)

Win probability 1X2

Hume City (H) 31.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -11.0%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.8%

Oakleigh C. (A) 41.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hume City face Oakleigh C. in Australia - NPL Victoria on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hume City a 32% chance, the draw 26% and Oakleigh C. 42%, so Oakleigh C. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Hume City and 1.5 for Oakleigh C. (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hume City are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.20 for Oakleigh C..

Hume City vs Oakleigh C. Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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